It’s time to to open those 401(k) statements again. It might not last, but the solid rally on Wall Street over the last two months has at least cushioned the blow from the worst bear market since the early 1930s.  While some investors might have stopped keeping score, up to $4 trillion in retirement assets alone were lost as of early March.

Stocks have since rebounded by over 30%. Not surprisingly, many shell-shocked investors have been reluctant to deploy new capital during the upswing, which raises the question whether the current rally is just another fleeting bear market bounce or the start of a new multiyear bull run. 

Stocks have been stuck in a long-term, or secular, bear market since March 2000, and it’s too early to tell if the March low marked its end. If so, the decline will have totaled 55% over nine years. It’s not unusual for bear markets to encompass several smaller bull markets, even as the long-term trend remains down. If the current bounce ultimately has staying power it will be worth playing, even if the secular bear market remains in place.

Cyclical bear markets, like the one that began in October 2007, usually include several strong countertrend rallies as well. The sharp bounce off the March low represents the third significant rally attempt during the current cyclical bear market. Compared with those two previous rebounds, however, this upswing looks healthier and more sustainable. Sellers are less motivated, though still more aggressive, than during a typical bull market, while buyers are less risk averse. Stocks were priced for Armageddon in early March, and when it didn’t happen, the path of least resistance was up.

There is however evidence to suggest that the domestic economy has bottomed, even though it will probably keep contracting for several more months. With an unprecedented amount of monetary juice already in the system and fiscal stimulus set to kick in, economic growth could resume as early as the fourth quarter. That’s much better than the market had been expecting, and explains why stocks are rallying so strongly now.

As a general rule, you don’t want to argue with a market that wants to go up, even if the optimism seems a bit excessive or premature. Markets overshoot to the downside and to the upside Still, there remains a disturbingly high probability that after the current rally draws in the last of the reluctant buyers, and climbs the final few rungs of the proverbial wall of worry, that serious disappointment will set in.

Massive government spending worldwide is temporarily filling a portion of the yawning gap in demand left by households and corporations in full retreat. But aside from China, most countries lack the resources to keep the fiscal pedal to the metal for an indefinite period. If unemployment remains stubbornly high for several years, a likely scenario given that banks are still hobbled, and housing won’t power the impending recovery – there could yet be one final and very ugly down leg to this vicious bear market.

In the meantime, enjoy a rally that’s likely to have surprising staying power. And catch up on those financial statements.