Government Cautious About Releasing Stress Test Results

picture-3 Government Cautious About Releasing Stress Test ResultsThe  U.S. government has not yet decided how to disclose the results of the bank stress tests which could have a negative affect on the markets this upcoming week.  Sources say that officials are working around the clock to figure out how to provide transparency about the results without causing a large disruption in the markets.

Regulators have stress tested the 19 largest U.S. banks to determine their capital needs should economic conditions deteriorate further. Officials have said that they will release the results in some form this week. The markets are anxiously awaiting the results as investors try to figure out which banks are on the path to recovery and which might face pressure to raise more capital, possibly through government funds.

Investors have embarked on their own guesswork, crafting their own results of the governments’ tests. Some banks’ shares have already been punished following early leaked reports that they will need more capital. Citigroup may have to raise more capital, according to preliminary results of its stress test, people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday, and Bank of America Corp may need billions of dollars more, the Wall Street Journal has reported.

Most experts agree that the idea of the stress tests has changed since Treasury announced the exercise in February. The original intention was to use the tests to determine which banks might need to participate in a new government capital infusion program, but market appetite for information on banks’ health has expanded its significance. Officials have said that the public disclosures will likely allow outside analysts to test their own assumptions of the banks’ health against regulators’ assessments.

However, a document the Federal Reserve released last Friday revealing the underlying assumptions of the stress tests did not include many specifics. The government has to decide whether to release the results of individual banks next week, or just disclose summary information for all the tested banks. Regarding whether banks themselves self disclose, bank examination findings are generally exempt from U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission disclosure requirements. Some experts have argued that the stress test process has risen to the level of a material event that investors should be informed about.

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