Dow’s game theory

BOSNIA WEATHERDow Chemical may have yet to lay out its legal strategy for walking away or delaying its more than $15 billion takeover of Rohm and Haas, but its strategy makes sense from a game-theoretic standpoint, according to JP Morgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas.

If the court orders Dow to close the transaction after a trial, it would be no worse off than it would be today, except for legal fees, he argued in a research note earlier this week.

There also could be a benefits: “It may be that the court rules in its favor to a smaller or larger degree; it may be that Rohm and Haas grants it a financial concession as part of the legal process,” he wrote.

Still, Dow could back itself into a corner in terms of financing if it closes the deal too late.

The company is working to renegotiate the terms of its $13 billion, one-year term loan it would use to finance the deal. But as the terms of the loan are currently written, the loan will either mature a year after the deal closes or April 14, 2010, which ever date is earlier.

So if the deal doesn’t close by mid-April, Dow’s financing issues could be made more difficult, not easier, by the delay.

(PHOTO: Pensioners play outdoor chess as they enjoy a sunny autumn morning in Sarajevo November 3, 2008.  REUTERS/Danilo Krstanovic)

 Dow’s game theory  Dow’s game theory  Dow’s game theory

 Dow’s game theory

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